中图分类号： TP301 文献标识码： A DOI：10.16157/j.issn.0258-7998.200346 中文引用格式： 李美桃. 从基础研究浅析人工智能技术发展趋势[J].电子技术应用，2020，46(10)：29-33，38. 英文引用格式： Li Meitao. Analysis of the trend of artificial intelligence technology on basic research[J]. Application of Electronic Technique，2020，46(10)：29-33，38.
Analysis of the trend of artificial intelligence technology on basic research
National Industrial Information Security Development Research Center，Beijing 100040，China
Abstract： During the past sixty years, artificial intelligence(AI) has achieved rapid development jointly promoted by algorithms, computing power, and big data, but it is still in the stage of artificial narrow intelligence. The status and trends of basic research in AI algorithms and computing power are analyzed. The evolution of artificial narrow intelligence to artificial general intelligence will depend on breakthrough in AI basic theory research. On the aspect of AI algorithms, the deep learning algorithm model lacks interpretive reasoning and generalizability. AI encounters bottlenecks in basic theory and urgently needs a breakthrough. On the aspect of computing power, due to the CMOS physical limits the Moore′s law is approaching failure and the growth of computing power is slowing down, the general computing chip architecture is limited by Feng Neumann′s bottleneck and AI chips represented by neuromorphic chips are in the ascendant. On the aspect of data, the lack of high-quality data sets in specific area restricts AI technology application and more high-quality data sets will be continuously constructed in the short future. In short, the basic AI technology will slowly advance for a long time in the future, but the AI applications are booming from right now.
Key words : artificial intelligence；basic research；development trend；algorithm；computing power
人工智能(Artificial Intelligence，AI)是计算机技术发展到高级阶段的复杂技术体系，综合了计算机、数学、逻辑、信息论、控制论、认知科学和伦理学等多种学科。人工智能于1956年在达特茅斯学院的一次学术会议上被提出，可分为三个发展阶段：弱人工智能(Artificial Narrow Intelligence，ANI)、强人工智能(Artificial General Intelligence，AGI)和超人工智能(Artificial Super Intelligence，ASI)。ANI是在限定条件下的人工智能，目前掌握的人工智能技术处于该阶段，是没有理解和推理的感知智能；AGI是能理解、推理和解决问题的机器智能，有知觉和自我意识，属于认知智能；ASI是在几乎所有领域都比最聪明的人类大脑都聪明的机器智能，是人工智能技术发展的终极目标。